Battle for bergkarabach

Battle for Bergkarabach

Map: Undetermined

A "Frozen conflict" In the Caucasus runs the risk of eating in a hot war

The caliber, with which Azerbaijanic and Armenian units are pushed along the strongly attached ceasefire line to Bergkarabakh, are always gross. Since last August 19, 19 soldiers have fallen to fight for the internationally unrecognized Armenian republic, the conflict parties went to postpone each other with heavy Morsergranants.

The manifold military intermediate trap at the front sections of 1994 "frozen" Burger War have made the first four months of this year to the bloodiest since the signing of the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan 1994. The Caspian Defense Studies Institute has paid 31 permanent dead in this period. "There is no room more for escalations", Warned a political analyst against Bloomberg. A miscalculation Konne a war climb:

Over 20 years there were small arms, now artillery, drones and aircraft are used.

The majority inhabited by Armenians region Bergarabach was a scene of one of the bloodiest secession wars, which were conducted in the course of the decay of the Soviet Union. The 1923 autonomous area Bergarabakh (Armenian pop-up part: around 72 percent in the 1980s) was formally part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic, until the ethnic clashes escalating from 1987 from 1991 in an open war between Armenia and Azerbaijan Mundeten, after Baku in a resolution The Autonomy Bergkarabachs stopped and the Armenians reacted with an independence-referendum.

Battle for Bergkarabach

Map: Undetermined

As on the 12th. May 1994 the weapons were finally silent, were nearly 40.000 people dead, distributed over one million (around 200.000 Armenians and 800.000 Azerbaijaner) and 14 percent of the sudwest territory Azerbaijan occupied by Armenians. Since then, an internationally recognized in this area has been constituted "Republic of Bergkarabach", the narrow military and economic relations with Armenia.

Since this heavy defeat, the lead in Baku has made the replacement of these lost territories to their outpolitic maxim under head of state Ilham Aliyev. This revantchistic policy is made by the raw material content of the Sudkaucasian country, which is considered thanks to its Dollain Statements in the Caspian Sea as the third-grave oleexporter within the PostSowjetic states. The raw material content is mainly exported by the Baku Tbilis Ceyhan Pipeline, which are mainly involved in Western Olmultis such as BP, Statoil or Unocal.

Militarian imbalance

The currency rain, which since the realization of these billions-heavy investments from 2006 goes down on Baku, allows Baku to increase the massive increase in militar expenses. If the Sudkaucasian state ied $ 175 million for military purposes 2004, these in 2005 were $ 300 million and 2006 at $ 650 million in US dollars. Armenia is unable to participate in the rusts of the rust, its military expenditure was increased in 2006 from 125 to $ 150 million.

The current figures disclose the massive Azerbaijanic rusts and the resulting military imbalance in the region: In 2015, Baku wants to spend $ 4.8 billion for the army, while in 2014, around 3.8, 3013 about 3.6 and 2012 three Billions were US dollars.

For comparison: Jerevan was able to mobilize only 447 million US dollars in 2013 for the defense budget. With this, Azerbaijan uses more money for its militar when Armenia is available throughout the state budget: this is just 3.2 billion US dollars. Aliyev emphasized that his country raised the militar expenses within the last ten years and that these now "twice the Armenian state budget" encompassed.

With the military imbalance therefore, the risk of war in the region. The intelligence service provider Stratfor sees in a recent analysis the risk of Azerbaijan in summer "Limited operation" could start to conquer some of the districts adjacent to Bergkarabach. On 31. Marz has explained the Azerbaijan Defense Minister according to Stratfor that his country soon "free the occupied territories" will. Such a limited Azerbaijanic contemporary was very fast – also unintentional – in a coarse conflict with Armenia.

But this was also allowed to risk Baku currently, Stratfor, as Armenia is the most important regional associated Russia. Nevertheless, the "Focus" of the Kremlin on the power struggles in Ukraine contribute that in the medium term the fear of Russian retaliation in Baku will decrease. Similarly, an Azerbaijan analyst argued against Bloomberg. The escalation is only possible because of that "Russia busy with Ukraine" may be.

Azerbaijan and Armenia in conflict between Russia and the West

Armenia is – in addition to Kazakhstan and Belarus – a member state of the Young by Kremlin as a counter model to the EU launched "Eurasian Union", Their constitution to the intervention of the West in Ukraine led (geopolitical dejà-Vu). In addition, around 5 are in Armenia.000 Russian soldiers stationed, sometimes monitoring the Armenian airspace. In return, Armenia’s released military appliance from Russia.

The Armenian economy is dependent on the high exhaust of Russia. Russian companies and public corporations control the energy sector, rail transport and a coarse part of telecommunications.

But even for the West is a lot on the game in the region – in the form of billions of investment and a slow-eroding geopolitical influence. During the "relative peace" the past two decades had western corporations "Billions of dollars pumped into the production of OL and gas in Azerbaijan and build pipelines that connect the country with suditals", Jammed Bloomberg in the face of "Rise of violence", these investments now danger.

The Baku Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pileline Lan "less than 100 kilometers" From the truce line between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In addition, the European countries still comprehensive in 2013 had completed gas supplies with Azerbaijan, which achieved a scope of 45 billion euros.

In plain English: The West wants to build Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russian imports of energy carriers, so Russia continues to the geopolitical Great Game in Postsowjetic Space (Ukrainian "Great game") can be weak. At the same time, Azerbaijan seems to avoid a blob of geopolitical instrumentalization by the US or the EU. On the one hand, the country is one of the Treusten customers of the Western arms industry, so Baku in the past five years as the second most important customer of European weapons forging.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan – whose most important regional bonded is the Turkey, which has closed the border with Armenia since 1993 – against apron organizations of Western Aufspolitik. The New York Times complained at the beginning of 2015 in the face of increasing antiquity rhetoric and police relay against the US broadcaster Free Europe / Radio Liberty in Baku, that Azerbaijan turn away from the West.

As early as 2013, Azerbaijan exhausted a one-sided integration into the Western federal system by reading Aliyev a participation in the European Nabucco pipeline and thus fails to fail the European energy project. Nabucco should relieve the dependence of the EU of Russian energy supplies.

Finally, Baku initiated a policy of the adoption to the Kremlin, which in 2013 in a comprehensive weapon alsal in the scope of a billion US dollars meltte. This amption of heavy reactions in Jerevan, when the Armenian Prasident Serzh Sargsyan openly Ubte Ubte criticism of Moscow and the Russian weapon sales as "very painful". Be Armenia "very worried", the existence "Strategic partner weapons to Azerbaijan" deliver.

While the Russian weapons deliveries to Baku obviously follow the intention to cement the influence of Moscow in the region, the Calfululat Azerbaijan is currently aimed at expanding its military travel, Mutmabte the New York Times:

It was never clear how Russia was intervened in a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan for Bergkarabakh, but the refuge of America by Baku will make Russia less inclined to participate in a fight against Azerbaijan.

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