The planned referendum as a vertex of the crisis

The planned referendum as a vertex of the crisis

Geopolitiance Krafte (6.3.2014). Image: Spiridon Ion Cepleanu / CC-BY-SA-3.0

What is from the Ukrainian dispute in the Crimea?

Since the beginning of Russian invasion on the 28th. February there has been several interim cases in the Crimea, but there was not a sharp firearms use yet. For the 16. Marz has set the pro-Russian regional government on the Crimea peninsula a referendum on the independence of the region and its connection to Russia. What will then be from the Ukrainian troops stationed in the Crimea?

On the 27th. February 2014 stormed armed demonstrators who are considered "Self-defense of the Russian-speaking population of the Crimea" designate, the regional parliament in Simferopol and called Sergei Aksjonov from the party "Russian unit" The new Ministerial President of the Crimea. The new regional government set for 16. Marz a referendum on the drawing of the autonomous region of Crimea from the Ukrainian nation state and a connection to Russia. This concerns 2.4 million inhabitants on a flat of 26.844 QKM life.

Although the Russian-stemming population represents nearly 60 percent of the electorate, there are up-to-date surveys that only 40 percent will vote in the sense of the regional government. However, it can be amed that the election result is manipulated in the sense of Vladimir Putins. The state officials in the Crimea promise a fantastic salary worth 300 percent. After the repeated falls of the past days, it is foreseeable that no independent control will be given by foreign election observers of the UN or the OSCE.

The Calfs of the Russian State President Vladimir Putin, his general bars General Walerij Wassilevich Gerassimow and his political strategists such as Z. B. Wjacheslaw Jurjewitsch Surkow seems to rise at least prematray. A pseudo-legal coat becomes for the Russian invasion of the 28. February 2014 created FAIT ACCOMPLI constructed: The Crimea is – according to the supposed will of the majority of population – from Ukraine and will be incorporated by Russia into its territory.

This scenario had been considered several times by Russian politicians in the first half of the 1990s. This goods – apart from German reunification, the Czechoslovak division and the release of the Baltic’s Baltic Federation – the first serious change in European boundaries since the end of World War II.

Although the new Ukrainian Minister Presenter promised Arsenij Petrovich Jazzenjuk on 9. Marz defiant: "This is our country, we will not give up no centimeter from it." But this populism immediately contradicted his Minister of Defense Igor Tenjuk: You do not have to send Ukrainian militar surveys to the Crimea.

Thus, the Ukrainian coatings stationed in the Crimea were too "foreign" Troops in "own" Country, and the question arises about your further whereabouts. Thus, the pro-Russian Deputy Minister President of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Rustam Temirgalijew, made on 6. Marz in the regional capital Simferopol already clear before the referendum:

Since the Crimea has become a territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian dispute was the only legitimate armed formations on the territory of the Crimea. The disputes of other states are considered as occupant with all the resulting consequences.

And his head of government Sergei Aksjonov threatened:

Those who did not joint are drawn with all the severity of the law on criminal law.

Three options are conceivable:

  1. The Russian ies conquer through weapons violence the Ukrainian militia.
  2. The Ukrainian soldiers give their militia at a very busy and go in pension or in "Ukrainian exile"
  3. The Ukrainian soldiers give up their militia, destroying their military appliance and go in Russian prisoner of war.

The previous course of annexation

The American military intelligence Defense Intelligence Agency had since 18. February 2014 Indications for a positive Russian invasion of the Crimea. This reported DIA Director General General Michael T. Flynn, after the intelligence was criticized, he had overslept the crisis (the alleged US intelligence services and Ukraine conflict.) What the threat analysis supported was not known. If the claim is correct, the Russian government began with its attack preparations at a time when Wiktor Yanukovich was still Ukrainian prasident.

In this context, it should not be dishamed that the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US General Philip Breedlove, only one day before the Russian start of attack, on the 27th. February 2014, in the slide headquarters in Washington has been informed personally about the situation development.

From the 28. February the units of Russian Black Sea fleet stationed in Crimea were stomparged by Russian troops. According to US information is now at least 20.000 Happow of the Russian dispute on the peninsula. In contrast, the Russian government claims cheekily, there was no Russian invasion, no war and no break of the Volker right. Instead, the Russian Government tries to be responsible for the bustling of the situation. In an explanation of the Moscow Dome Ministry of 3. Marz 2014 strolled it:

We are with this on 2. Marz ied explanation (NATO, G. P.Categorically, in which the Russian Federation is convicted of the ‘military escalation in the Crimea in violation of the market principles’. (…) We believe that such a position does not contribute to the stabilization of the situation in Ukraine and only ends that force that wants to abuse the present development for obtaining its irresponsible political goals.

In fact, at least 2.000 to 3.000 Russians fled over the two aviator shorest Belbek and Gwardejsk at Sevastopol with transport aircraft and helicopters of the transport flyer fleet. Through her personnel and material consideration, the Russian occupation troops could previously avoid sharp firearms use, which apparently was an important militar-political goal of the militar planner.

The Ukrainian crowds (Sbrojni Syly Ukrajiny) had little resistance to Russian invasion. There were several reason for this:

  1. The Ukrainian soldiers fell through the Russian "Brother’s folk" from historical reasons not threatened: on the 3. August 1992 the then Soviet Black Sea Fleet was divided into the Ukrainian Navy and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. However, the Russian troop parts remained on Ukrainian territory. So both fleets still use the same fleet control points to this day. Quasi is located on one side of the quay the Ukrainian submarine and on the other side the Russian submarine. In addition, the navy from both states with the same ship types is erupted, the soldiers have the same education and drove common fleet abilities, such as. B. The year-round staff framework "Massing water of peace".
  2. The new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian disputes, InterimSprasident Alexander Walentinowitsch Turtschinov, is only since 23. February in office. This date marks the political turning in Ukraine. However, Turtschinow is inexperienced militarolitically. The same applies to the since the 27. February Presenting Minister Prosident Arsenij Petrovich Jazenjuk, who took the office of Serhij Arbusov, who in turn only since the 28. January acted as a government leader.

As Defense Minister acted since the 27. February Admiral Igor Tenjuk as successor to General Vladimir Zamana, who only on 22. February had taken the office of Pawlo Lebedew. At 6. Marz were released the three Vice Defense Minister Alexander Olijnyk, Vladimir Moscharowski and Arturo Franzisko Babenko from the service.

According to Russian information, they had spoken against a possible use of the Ukrainian dispute against the pro-Russian population. This presentation can not currently be reviewed on their truth content. The new member of the Deputy Defense Minister was still the same day Colonel A. D. Pjotr N. Neched appointed, which was picked up from his retirement. Probably the political command regions ("Stawka") Due to these personnel revirements on Russian invasion only to spat or not react appropriate

* Actually, the Ukrainian headquarters of eight departments, including an enrollment department (J-2) and an Operations Department (J-3), which are stated in terms of items and surgery. For command inspection, modern communication systems such as the Single Automated Command and Control System (SAC2S) and the Single Digital Integrated Network are available.

But the Ukrainian militar carrying is politically divided in view of the Burger-Warahlahnliche in the Country of the Country of the Neuer government, as well as in Ukrainian patriots and Russian sympathizers. Thus, the militar carrying is tactical-operatively action-related.

The Russian news agency RIA Novosti cited an anonymous member of the Ukrainian Council for National Security with the following words: "A coarse part of the General and Officers of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is against the policy of opposite rulers in Kiev, which are based on radical nationalist organizations and are oriented on the break of good-neighbor relations with Russia."

Also this presentation is currently not checked. However, there were also in the Ukrainian Lace General in recent weeks of recoverable recruitment: The General Staff Superest Wolodimir Zaman was on 19. February 2014 on orders of the former Prasident Yanukovich replaced by the Marine Chief Admiral Juri Iljin, this in turn was on the 28th. February on orders of the new interim sprayer Turtschinow from the General General Nant MyKhailo Kutsyn. Supposedly Admiral Iljin had suffered a heart attack.

The HeerSchief General Overstell Gennadiy Vorobyov was still dismissed by Yanukovysch in mid-January 2014. As a Luftwaffenkef currently acts General Top Baidak Yurii Abrahamovycz. The case of Kontal Admiral Denis Berezovski aroused: after only on 1. Marz was appointed New Commander of the Ukrainian Navy, he gave himself the following day the Russian dispute. He was solved by Admiral Sergei Gaiduk. For the war carriage in the Crimean area the Hudkommando of the Ukrainian disputes in Odessa. His commander has been unnecessary General General Anatoly Sirotenko since July 2012.

* Since the end of the Cold War 1991, the Ukrainian disputes of 800 were.000 to around 150.000 men reduced until 2017 was another reduction on only 70.000 soldiers provided. Therefore, the operational readiness of the dispute has fallen in recent years. Thus, the decline of the Ukrainian economy leads to a underfinancing of the dispute, whose years of household "only" at around 1.12 billion euros. According to the Geltted State President Wiktor Yanukovich, the Ukrainian dispute and intelligence services consciously ruined to make the country stormy.

Over the real state of the Ukrainian disputes, Young’s Journalist Benjamin Bidder reported "Mirror online":

"The crowds are also eaten by corruption as the rest of the state. For a commend to the brigade commander, officers must take up to 12.000 dollars bribe to their superiors pay, report former militars. The money twow in their unity elsewhere.

Kiev has conceded the mobilization of the army. Whether Ukraine, however, has actually convinced Uber Englisch, which could offer the Russians Paroli, doubt politicians of the new government coalition. ‘We did not manage to build a real army in 22 years, "says the deputy Gennadij Moskal. ‘I trust them a state secret: with us no plane more abandoned, and no tank jumps on.""

Therefore, the Ukrainian disputes could also make no conflicts on the Crimea. Only the regional police force of the Ministry of the Interior under Guide of Nikolai Balaban could – except the local Berkut battalion – represent a reserve.

* In the Crimea, no further Ukrainian combat and ground forces have been stationed in the Marineinfanterie (Morskaya Pehota Ukrainyi), which could afford noteworthy resistance.

* In contrast, the Russian force is superior: to the Black Sea Fleet under the command of Admiral Alexander Witko now pay more than 20.000 Active soldiers and over 40 ships. Even before the invasion, the Russian navy in the Crimea on a useful space of 180 km2, of which are afraid of 30 km2 to the harbor land in Sevastopol.

The additional amplifiers do not carry a health and unity badge on their field uniform and thus violate the provisions of the Combatant Status of the Geneva Convention of 1948. After proceedings and equipment, these are at least partially special units, such as the 3. Speznaz Brigade of the Russian militar intelligence Gru from Toljatti near Samara, suspects the early Russian militar expert Igor Sutyagin, who works today for the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) in London.

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