Syria’s future: assad and several jihadistan?

Syria's future: Assad and several Jihadistan?

Al-Nusra in Idlib. Propagand

The Government Trump will probably give up the support of militias. However, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey behave?

To about 100.000 to 150.000 Camphor quantifies the French Syria specialist Fabrice Balanche the strong of militias who want to stream the Syrian government.

In the event of the iing of the IS militia, the estimates differ even more: The CIA goes according to the Balanche of 30.000 Fighters in Syria and Iraq. Patrick Cockburn hold this for a blatant leader, he goes from 200.000 IS struggles, a quarter of it should be in Syria.

However, Cockburns come from a two-year-old article and they serve only on comments of a Kurdish Peshmerga General.

That balanche the old 200.000 IS-Milizen debt in its current management report "to the state of Syrian rebellion" absorbs, surprises something.

One can only encourage that he wants to identify with this extender, how little precise facts and associations are available to the opponents Assads. Then the span points in the treasures for the strong of non-IS militia.

To stay with the numbers: The strong of the regular troops of the Syrian army gives Balanche with 125.000 again. In addition, bonded militias come to 150.000 men are estimated, including 50.000 Shiite camphor from Hezbollah as well as Iranian Iraqi, Pakistani and Afghan Hazara camphor.

The SDF estimates Balanche to about 30.000 camphor.

This gives a rough orientation to the coarse ratios in the Syrian war, with here already shown that accuracy is not payable. This continues in the breakdown of the ideological subdivisions of anti-assad militias.

Development of Jihadistan

Balanche prescribes his analysis the determination that the coarse part of the military opposition – outside of the IS and the SDF – should be fragmented that it became more and more difficult "Dynamics of resistance" predict. The number of groups increases and the coalitions that make them turn, other their composition and their name. As a single common denominator one can only be the "Sunnitical identity" hurry out.

This vague "Religious homogenity" However, rich in keeping the armed opposition together and bring together under a common political identity. That’s well known. Curiosity comes up with the question that Balanche links: whether the armed overflowers have a chance to remove the government Assad?

He fugges another, according to the state of things more likely, possibility, namely that Jihadistan developed in Syria and how to tackle. To anticipate: Balanches point of view transverse to the view that no group should be supported. He does the thesis that the sacular groups had to be supported now and quickly. He sees the only possibility to prevent that from the "Resistance zone" Jihadistan will be.

The view – carefully formulated by Balanche: "Yet This May Be The Only Means of Preventing.." – is descriptant in several ways and in view of the upcoming US government probably without reality content. Because she comes from Balanche, it is remarkable.

To the position Balanches

Fabrice Balanche is to roughly rewrite its position, not a party one of a military intervention in Syria and no one who all "moderate rebels" Looks at the work. Let analyzes raised in many cases – not in all – from widespread views.

So he decidedly settled to the Jihadists in Aleppo, as others only from the civilian vacation and the "Russian and Syrian war criminals" written. He said in an interview with the Figaro that in the neighborhoods dominated by the Jihadists "essentially only more families of struggle, which are paid for it to stay there".

Balanche also made aware of the support of the Jihadists by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. His contribution to the situation in Syria were observed in the experts who sharply criticized the interference policy of the sponsor states and responded as sharp to the prevalence of the jihadistic danger. And now the Think tanker shows his true "Intervention face"?

The Frenchman is Visting Fellow of the Denkfabrik Washington Institute for Near East Policy, whose members are the neo-conservative interventionist Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz.

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