Christian Wernicke Uber America at the Scheiderweg
In her book America’s last chance – why the world power must reinvent the two SZ correspondents Reymer Kluver and Christian Wernicke a remarkable Duster’s image of the United States. Because the economy was driven there by low profit taxes, a consumer boom financed by debt and the deregulation of the public sector, both publicly and private households in the debt trap are sitting after rubbing the credit chain in the real estate market: an oconomic vicious circle which there is hardly any escape and driving the political, social and cultural division of the country.
Mr. Wernicke, the USA was for a long time for their optimism, but now has been generally a kind of Titanic mood for years. What has this confidence has been fed by this, the smell of smells has not always been a trail to naive and what are the reason why the American Way of Life losing? Christian Wernicke: We have always understood American optimism only difficult. But it was not confidence of the blind style, but how to say in America "CAN-do"-Optimism, which was also followed. With us Germans, the self-doubt is part of the political culture, we had not placed such a thing as Kennedy, who presented themselves as a newly elected prasident in front of the nation and announced to bring someone to the moon in ten years. The Americans actually managed. This optimism has disappeared in recent years, with many factors playing a role here. At the latest since the end of 2007, so at the beginning of the financial crisis, optimism is also drowned because the Americans do not believe that their children will be better than themselves. This confidence still prevailed in the 50s and 60s of the last century – that is, at a time since the USA is based on the half of global industrial production. At least the sanitary industrial workers brought a tremendous social climb, many families were able to allow themselves to send the children to the college. This mood also existed in the seventies, but she has disappeared since then. Since then, people plagued the idea that this American dream is no longer possible. This feeling also connects to the real current social imbalance: In the US, there are currently over eight percent unemployment! The feeling that it can not go on as before, but was already in 2005, in the year, since the colleague Kluver and me here for the SZ began as correspondent. For the middle classes, the real road has stagnated since the spades. For the families, the families have compensated by the enormously grown acquisition of women. When that was no longer enough, people have given up a second job, their credit card debt highly driven or gained further loans via their real estate. In the 1990s, the public debt had increased to a hundred percent of the average annual income. This massive debt has kept the economy going on until 2008. Then the loans are burst and the demand that the economy has kept under steam broke away. Since then we have now see a tremendous state debt that Obama drives into the high. The place of credit financed demand of private households is now the public debt that the economy drives. How this business should continue on Pump in the long term, no man.
How have the social components moved within the last 20 years? Christian Wernicke: If the current social conditions in the US wants to interpret, it must be back to the end of the seventies. At this time, two trends have forced social split and social alienation. The one is the fountain in technological development, ie the change from the industrial to the service company. The second is the faded competition in globalization. Exactly understanding can be the social shift in the development of productivity in the income distribution ratio. Until the spades of seventies, productivity and leans rose in approximately parallel for normal workers. That was a fair deal. Since 1979, however, the salhers explode in the top ten to twenty percent of society, while productivity advances in the middle class no longer arrive. The income inequality has increased sharply since then and is so difficult these days as in the twenties, immediately before the start of the economic crisis. There are even IMF studies that say that this massive distribution of uneven distribution is destabilized the American overall economy and society and makes more accurate for crises.
The real estate boom has burst the American dream
You have dated the beginning of this process exactly to the year 1979. Which role did the play Reaganomics? Christian Wernicke: These have no doubt contributed, but in principle this development was first forced by the economy. The policy then followed. Say: Reagan has made tax reforms that the rich more emanated than the poor. But Clinton has continued this course that procured social benefits. The core of the Reagonomics But another, namely the illusion, could at the same time operate neoliberal economic policy and a Keynesian program for the recovery of the militar to rust the Soviet Union, which no longer had reserves, to death. World politics was a success, but thus the public debt has been driven up. Both political parties have driven a deregulation policy over decades, which contributed to the fact that the profits on Wall Street exploded – and the market summary failed. Has your comments to the real estate crisis "American dream" like a soap bubble burst? Christian Wernicke: People were trailing at the end of the nineties that they funded their prosperity on pump. Macrocononically, the United States had briefly had a public savings at that time, so the federal budget did not only write balanced numbers, but even had a positive balance. At the same time, however, the debt of private households rose to record levels, because the demand of the good was financed via debt. This was always so on to the year 2007: People have always recorded new loans due to their book-based house value. The real estate boom drove the prices high and people took accounts: but then did not happen on the basis of the house value before saying ten years, as the house 300.000 dollars cost, but in the high of the current, increased market value, about 400.000 dollars. When the prices were involved, the people at once had mortgage loans, which were high as the now sunken value of their houses. Because now the house was not 400 anymore.000 dollars, but maybe only 250.000 Dollar value. So many families could no longer serve their debts. The real estate crisis has bursted the American dream insofar as these loans are burst. But the American dream in the sense of confidence a la "We make it"-Mental tentatat had already been permanently. The proportion has the prasidens George W. Bushs at the US self-erosion? Christian Wernicke: Bush has accelerated with its two tax reforms, both of which, above all, the rich and income from capital’s contrary, accelerated America’s debt spiral. Bush has driven the public debt into the high levels of government by tax cuts and at the same time starting two wars. This is also unique in American history. Because normally, when the nation was war, have raised any special taxes to finance the campaign. Bush has advised the Americans instead of 9/11 to go back to go. The Bush government has not done anything to tackle the foreseeable financial crisis and she has faster debt, especially in China in China,. That’s noteworthy to not shaped to say.
Obama now sits between all the chairs
After deselection of Bush is also the euphoria around Barack Obama quickly flew up again. why? Christian Wernicke: In the first two years, Obama has achieved a lot of polite. For example, the historical health care reform or a faded regulation of the financial markets. What he thought was, the US was on the way to driving a sustainable economy. Above all, Obama had promised a change in political culture in Washington: conclusion with right and left, towards a policy of national reason with bridge over the party political dig. That was always naive, but it was part of his political agenda. Instead, under Obama, Polarization continued to increase in the Congress, he did not believe that the Republicans involve the political process, which bitter the Department of Republicans and the independent Wahler extremely bitter. Obama has put on the fact that a success was successfully achieved the next success. If he is a reform through, then, so the faith, respect and approval in the population and ultimately the national unity was growing, because the success was also politically impressed the republicans. In reality, however, however, the health care reform was politically rather hung. Because there was noble burger rulers, Townhall meetings and protests that had underestimated the democrats for a long time against the reform from Fruhsommer 2009. So you have approved that the Republicans occupied the topic and radicalized content. After just eight months Obama government, the Prasident has been forced to justify himself to justify himself for his reforms. He has operated the mediation of reforms so badly that the Republicans won the upper hand here here. This in turn had the consequence that the reforms of modest fell prices – and in turn has frustrated the trail of Democrats. At the end Sab Obama between all chairs. Christian Wernicke. Photo: © Thomaskirchner / Suddeutsche Zeitung
The US disintegrates in political stems and subcultures, in separate life and media worlds
Franklin D. Roosevelt at this time has the penultimate fundamental crisis of America by the policy of the "New Deal" mastered. How far are the US from such a one removed and what remains the last chance of America? Christian Wernicke: The land has to modernize in many ways. For example, the internal basic renovation of the economy, which has been financed in the past twenty years, only funded over the past twenty years, a comprehensive repair of the infrastructure and a sustainable economic model. These basic modernization steps needs America to assert itself as a globalized economy as well as in a multipolar world as a world power. Whether the US can do this, we do not know. I doubt that. If a Republicans such as Romney should win the election in November, Obamas Agenda will not stay much stable. And if Obama wins, it is quite unlikely that he will have a sufficiently stable majority in the Reprused athouse and Senate to make his projects to realize. This land must come to reflection, but the conditions for that are very bad: unlike Roosevelt’s times, there is no national political discourse overnight. This land decreases more and more in political tribes and subcultures, in separate living and media worlds who no longer have to contact the other side. So if you are a fundamental reform like the "New Deal" If Roosevelts want to enforce, who had also had enormous resistance to overcome, they must convey them to all parts of the company. But a third to almost half of the population is not available for Obama: they see their own television channels such as Fox news, reading conservative websites and horen radio stations who only confirm their own opinion. People live in ideological echo chambers in which only that is sent, what they are already thinking about anyway. Obama hardly has a possibility to talk these people only at all. The worlds of life in the US are now falling apart so far that people of different world view do not even know each other. This land will be unregulated in increasing habe. (Reinhard YellenTo)