Anyone who appears to be competent at first glance has the best chances of election victory – this findings provide US researchers based on governor’s elections
The post of the governor is in the US states of one of the most important overhead – right after the Prasident Office so it is no coincidence that four of the FUF has previously ruled a state in the last 30 years of ruling prasides. The local elections are not cheap – on average is a significantly double-digit million amount.
It was therefore possible with some entitlement that the monthly prasence of the candidates on all channels follows a wealthy decision of the Wahler – but if so goods, it does not give this article not. In fact, a factor strong influence on the result, which is hardly influenced by even well-meant donations: the face of the candidate – and in particular, whether it radiates competence on the very first view.
In any case, this is the result of a study introducing the psychologists of Princeton University in the current publications of the US Academy of Sciences (PNAs). That with a decision of such scope, we do not follow the healthy sense of understanding, the research team Charles Ballew and Alexander Todorov found out in three interesting experiments.
Expression of competence in the face
In Experiment number 1, the test persons were shown the faces of winners and secondary places at 89 governor elections. Under time prere, it was necessary to evaluate the competence of the two candidates. (Er-), the subjects knew one of the candidates, fell the answer from the rating – it was alone about the expression of competence in the face of the judgment. In fact, one had already saved all surveys.
In the middle, the testing subjects with 64 percent probability of the result of the election predicted. There was a linear relationship between the skilled competence difference of the two candidates and the actual votes in the election. These values were not significantly influenced by whether for the answer 100 milliseconds, 250 milliseconds or unlimited a lot of time available.
Experiment number 2 built an additional difficulty in the first attempt: the researchers focused on the test persons, just not to trust their abdominal void and to consider exactly which candidate is probably the more competent one. The scientists presented different conditions: Once should be answered within two seconds, another time the faces were to see only for a quarter second, and a third time was all the time in the world to reflect.
The last case has ever reached one: the subjects are actually more than twice as much time. If prejudices can not be found in the rating, researchers here only asked election candidates of the same sex and the same skin color. The request to think exactly in the experiment obviously unfavorably on the forecast of the election result – the chance to meet the right result was no longer significant about random probability.
The unconscious decision
What actually influences the exit of elections, the researchers conclude, is the unconscious decision that the competence of the candidates out of their face. This statement agrees with the publications of other researchers – which, for example, already showed that the thinking about the quality of marmalade also makes the unconscious judgment more difficult as the conscious search for reasons why one likes someone, that can lead to the degree of Mogens decreases.
In Experiment 3, the scientists immediately controlled themselves – by judging the faces of the Governorsian candidates in 2006 before the actual choice – and compared the result with the later election result. In fact, in this way, the result of the governor elections with just under 69 percent probability predict. Ballew and Todorov relyed the feature of competence for their comparison – but they emphasize that the dependence of the choice of election could be decisive. Wahler preferred, for example, in war times the (morphic) face of George W. Bush, during peace times on the face of John Kerry you liked more.