Screenshot of a propaganda video, YouTube
Putin hopes for one "real contribution" for the occasion of violence in Syria
Next weekend a new start should be made to end the escalation spiral in the Syrian war. The Russian Aufemister Lawrow, his American counterpart Kerry and representatives of Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and possibly Qatars should be on Saturday, the 15.October, in Lausanne to meet talks, reports the Russian news agency TASS.
Putin talked to the German Chancellor Merkel and the French State President Hollande and expressed his hope that the talks in Switzerland are effective in terms of one "real contribution to a conciliation in Syria", will be added.
The meeting in Lausanne is followed by an international meeting to Syria in London, from which after first reports only a participant is established: the US-Foreign Minister John Kerry. According to information from L’Orient Le Jour, he meets all probability with important European counterparts.
Hopes by participating in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey?
The prospects that both collectors create, which has so far been briefly managed to meet namely arrangements for a long-term ceasefire, are not good. Quiet hopes that contrary to expectations comes differently, the participation of Saudi Arabia and Qatar waken – and maybe through the Turkey.
All three countries have an influence on the crucial militias, on the Al-Nusra front and on Ahrar Al-Sham. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have finance them for years and supply them with weapons, as currently once again confirmed by the Clinton e-mail leaks. The support of the Salafists and Jihadists through the Turkey is also no longer a secret.
However, the first prerequisite was that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have the political will to recommend the Jihadists / Salafists with the deduction of Aleppo – and the second goods that follow the Al-Nusra front and ahr al-sham of such a recommendation Afford. For this they had to be associated with the end of the support as a consequence. The hope that Saudi Arabia is seriously attributable to a deduction of surreal in view of the insistence, with the Saudi Arabia so far on a deduction of Bashar Al-Assad as precondition has passed further negotiations.
Two fronts, no bridge
From the perspective of the Syrian Government and its composite Russia, which was called in September last year because of the threatening situation through the militias, it can "real contribution" to a mediation of the conflict or a sampling of the warrior confrontation no other objective pursue as one that is a weakness of the "Terrorist" result. They are in the eyes of the Syrian government of the state enemoon and can not be seen differently.
For the militia liaison under the lead of the two mentioned groups, each deflection is unacceptable. You already have that with an offer to one "Aleppo Freeze Plan" To understand in early 2015. Currently, they have not agreed on the agreements identified between the US and Russia, which had a room separation between the Al-Nusra front and the other militias for the foundation, or are they ready to give up positions in the East Part Aleppos or evacuation to allow the civil avenue.
The UN Special Representative Staffan de Mistura had made the proposal of a free infringement last week and Ahrar Al-Sham had rejected the proposal. Your spokesman Hussam Al-Shafei threw De Mistura to support Bashar Al-Assad with such a suggestion. You prefer one of one of the "To remain the soul of the military strong of the Syrian revolution".
How the Newsportal Al-Masdar News related to the Syrian government reported this afternoon this afternoon, there are negotiations between the Syrian army and Islamist groups over a deduction of militias. That this has real prospects for success, currently no one believes. The Syrian government stops escape routes open for the population in the eastern part of Aleppos, on the fact that she repeated in the last few days.
According to the information of the Irish Times, which has spoken according to own data with a general from the government information department, the Syrian army again has announced a decisive factor of the attacks and referred to two flight corridors, which are open four hours a day.
However, it is difficult for the inhabitants to use these ways, be it because they will be forced by the militias, be it because they are in danger of other reasons or they are afraid of the other side.
Minimal barbell
The number of bargaining is minimal, unless there is one: the political requirement of the military opponents Assads is completely unacceptable for its government. You want the end of the Syrian state, where you want to set an emirate – and after the "Syrian revolution", the synonym for the "Syrian Jihad" is to expand the Jihad out the Syrian boundaries.
Militarically, they go to the whole. There will be no voluntary task of the militia alliance of already elegant positions. That was her argument against the Russian-American agreements.
The Syrian government has responded to militarically, with brachial support of the Russian Air Force. In view of the images of destructed house lines, the statement de misturas does not appear reality that Aleppo could be desormed until the end of the year. Where he must have meant the eastern part. In the government controlled part of the city, the risk of destruction is not so rough.
With the exception of the areas, which are in weighing width of the artillery of the militia. Also there whole the strain has become ruins. In the western part of Aleppos, children also come about how after the process, also documented the current OCHA report. Only you have no white helmets that distribute photos to the western media.
As it looks like, both war camps set on a military solution with ever new escalation levels. For the civil avenue "true contribution", The meetings in Lausanne and London can make a restoration of the ceasefire at least for a few days a week as well as auxiliary supplies – according to Ocha the last food reserves go to November.
Maybe the sword can agree to an arrangement. But according to the solutions found so far, every help is suspected that you will use one or the other side. As well as each arrangement for ceasefire will be under such a suspicion. The risk that the new arrangements are broken again after a shortest time is very rough. Auber one of the two sides is so weak that it depends on the results of agreements. So far, this is the case for the population, but not for the war parties.
Militarian goals and escalation
The weapons pause arrangements are the military goals of both sides. To the information of the above-mentioned Syrian government contact, the Irish Times reports that the Syrian and Russian government wants to end the Prasenz der Milizen in Aleppo before the end of this year.
Then there is a new prasident or a prasidential in the USA. Whether Clinton or Trump, both become, as an analysis of the US opportunities in Syria in the Middle East expert Marc Lynch will soon learn that they only have limited opportunities to an intervention. They are all connected with a subsequent juxtapight, because in the Syrian constellation only the failure is guaranteed – or an escalation in a dimension that no one wants.