Iran: the leisure of general

Iran: The leisure of general

Soleimani Received by Khameni the Zolfaghar Order, Marz 2019. Image: Khameni.IR / CC BY 4.0

A direct confrontation between Iran and the US seems averted for the time being; Ayatollah Khameni could benefit from Ghassen Soleimani’s death

Millions of people in the last few days have participated in the mourning marches for the General Ghassem Soleimani General Ghassem Soleimani murdered in several Iranian city. Not only in Tehran, also in Beirut Prage huge banners and posters reminiscent of Soleimani. In the end it seems, as if Donald Trump of Iranian guided done with the attack a favor.

Hate and popular

So Soleimani was also harried by the revolutionary grants in Iranian left and victims of the repressions – he was a very popular figure, which is also due to massive media campaigns. So it was surviving, but not only regiments that went on the straws.

The attack was also sentenced by persons who are not suspected with revolutionary Khameni (frequently also: chamei) or the revolutionary guard, including the writer Mahmoud Doulatabadi, which was subsequently committed violently – to the claim, let him out of the writer’s association.

Doulatabadi is considered one of the most important voices of Iranian contemporary literature and has to fight even again with the censorship. Some of his books like the novel "The Colonel" can not appear in Iran until today.

How can this be explained? Soleimani was considered a national hero when he was systematically assembled media. His face was Omniprasent in recent years, his struggle, especially against the IS, was credited to him high and also brought him sympathies of oppositional. The positive image he acquired some of the Iran Iraq war in the 1980s, which is still a national trauma.

The fact that the Revolutionary Guards commit massive crimes against the Iranian population that Soleimani’s shiite militias in Iraq and other countries are also brutally against opponents of Iranian influence, however, seems to be less prasent – or even accepted.

Discrepancy of action and rhetoric

It is progressive how rough the discrepancy of action and rhetoric on the part of the Iranian government is these days. Khameni speaks of revenge, Iranian militars threaten, as so often, not only the US, but also Israel (during Washington and Tel Aviv, comparable to Tone in the direction of Tehran are to be heard), but military hold themselves demonstratively back.

The rocket attack on a US basis in Iraq, where no Americans were killed, sends another signal than the "Slap", From Khameni speaks: It is a needle stitch, one "We could, if we wanted, but we do not want war".

National unification via USA

This backup coupled with the final exit from the atomic agreement also makes it clear that the Iranian answer to the attack should be more diplomatic because of military nature. At the same time, Soleimani’s death is released dominated. The leisure of general, so hopes Chamenei obviously, should be a national agreement – and the aging despot needs more than ever.

The mass protests last November, where the regime murder the internet caps and hundreds of demonstrators, were a dramatic sign for how very khameni stands with the jerking to the wall.

The repressions, the poor economic situation in the course of sanctions and corruption, but also expensive engagements abroad, such as those who performed Ghassem Soleimani for decades, once again drove people to the straws, and that the suppression of the protests are only short of rest became clear to all participants. But as the Iraq war provided for a national unity against an aggressor of Aufen, then the death of Soleimanis could have a similar effect.

The opposition that also oppositional the attack condemn and take for Soleimani party is only controversial at first sight. This shows a look at the atomic conflict. Several times proved that a clear majority of Iranians ignore the nuclear program, so many of those who are anything but appeal of the regime.

But not because they nuclear program in itself is important – but because they understand the interference from the outside as an attack on the sovereignty of their country. And this they refuse to tolerate, especially as long as Iran halt to international treaties such as the NPT or later agreed to the 2015 Agreement under which the United States have dropped unilaterally in 2018.

Trump has no Gespur for the countries of the region

The attack on Soleimani also shows once again that Trump fur hat, the countries of the region no Gespur, and hope others with death Soleimanis anything to can is illusory. The structures he has built in the last twenty years, will remain. A long-term successor (transition was appointed as Soleimanis deputy chief of the Quds Brigades) is found. Whoever will be, he will not have Soleimanis popularity – but he will act in his name.

The threat of war, which started with Trump’s action, seems to be banned for the moment. In the long run, however, the situation remains fragile – and that does not take advantage of provocation and aggression, but only with diplomatic skill.

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