Conversion of industrial society?

The Energy and Climate Week Show: IEA is radically and the Green Dafur Zahm, Merkel wants to help fossil industries, pension funds are positioning themselves to accompanies of climate protection

The discussion about the finiteness of the fossil fuels is ranging to the beginning of the 1970s back, the debates on the change of global climate through the greenhouse gases are almost as long as long as long as long. In this respect, it is pleased to be glad that an international debate on the conversion of industrial society has finally used a broader front.

Olource in Saudi Olfeld Shaybah. Image: Google Earth

The latest sign DAFUR is the last week published this-year report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Like Link to / Blogs / 2/118807, the Agency has given a rather duster outlook for the energy future. This is a quite remarkable process, because so far, the IEA has given itself quite conservative in the sense of its financiers from the OECD, the club of the rich industrialized countries, in their analyzes. She praised the nuclear power in the sky, the renewable energy carrier smallly talked and the discussion about Peak Oil, the point of harmony, is flipped-up.

In this respect, some observers of the discussion have grated his eyes given the storming words from Paris. Immediately in the first paragraph of the consuming, it’s right for things:

The world energy system stands at a crossroads. The current worldwide trends of energy production and consumption are clearly not future-proof, in okologically as well as in economic and social respects. That can, however, and must also be changed. Still is time for a change of course. There is no exaggeration to claim that the future well-being of humanity depends on how well we succeed in shinging two of the two energy challenges before which we are today: securing a reliable and affordable energy supply and rapid changeover to a CO2 arm , Powerful and environmentally friendly energy supply system. Nothing is needed less than an energy volume.

IEA (highlights in the original)

For example, the IEA has also revised its projection of the Old Prize clearly upwards. Now she ames that the OLD price will rise by 2030 to an average of $ 120 (at prices of 2007). The times Cheap Ols are over, the present price decline is probably nothing but an episode.

Among other things, this is also to be read on the enormous investments that are quantifully to further cover the increasing demand. Six times today’s Saudian college capacity of something about ten million barrels per day (MB / D) must be developed to increase production only moderately from 84 MB / D in 2007 to 106 MB / D 2030.

The reason: Many alter fields especially the giant fields, which have already been released relatively early, will show the sign of shot. By 2015 alone, 30 MB / D had to be newly received to create replacement, and there is "the real danger", that due to a lack of investment in the next few years comes to supply.

Conversion of industrial society?

The quantity of existing Olfelder goes strongly. Graphic: IEA

In fact, the concerns of the IEA face up mainly on the coarse sums that need to be invested, and to the concentration of resources on a few states. Otherwise, one is still aming that only one third of the world golf is consumed, another third known and again a third still the discovery of Harrt. In addition, the potential of Tebersande in Canada and Venezuela are considered pretty high.

However, the authors also ensure that the "Rucklang of the hospitals per olfeld accelerated". In a sample, 800 Olfelder were examined. It has been shown that the ruckle after exceedance of the peak, which is called, the haisted quantity, is so faster, the smaller the field is. Since in the future rather smaller fields are exploited – really rough finds, like the fields of the Arabian peninsula, are barely done – the rate, with which production per field decreases, increased in the global average to 10.5 percent per year.

With additional investments in the fields, but so far, the demand still distances itself and reduce this rate by one third. However, under the bottom line remains: In the next decades, the technical effort had to increase to the black gold, and above all the exploration and shouting will be accelerated.

New at the IEA report is that exemplary for the dangers of this further-SO scenario is pointed out and a renovation of the energy industry is said to be the word. If the ol- and coal consumption continued to rise as before, then CO2 emissions from currently 26 billion tons per year rose to 41 billion tonnes. Matches for energy saving are therefore uneasy.

Conversion of industrial society?

After the IEA, the CO2 emissions associated with the consumption of fossil energies will increase, especially in China, India and the Middle East. Graphic: IEA

Emissions rise

But so far, even in most industrialized countries, there is little trace, as new numbers of the Secretariat of the UN Climate Framework Convention in Bonn. 41 states such as Russia, the USA, most European Landers, Japan, Australia and Turkey had committed themselves in the convention in 1992 in the convention to influence their emissions by 2000 to the 1990 level of 1990. 39 of them have now ratified the Kyoto Protocol in which they commit themselves to reductions against 1990, but happened is mostly very little.

The best is the former Eastern Bloc States. Due to the economic collapse after 1990, they have dramatically reduced their emissions, albeit involuntarily. In the meantime they rise again, but are still plentiful below the level of 1990. In Hungary, for example, the amount of CO2s blown into the air and other greenhouse gases decreased by around 32 percent against 1990. However, there are still 78.6 million tonnes per annum, or just under eight tons per capita and year. Nevertheless, the country has just completed a link to / Tp / blogs / 2/118872, according to which Madrid does not "used" Buy the emissions of the Magyars.

Spain is obviously necessary to steal itself by drain trade from responsibility. Despite expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics, it is with an emission plan of 50.6 percent of one of the leader in industrialized countries. Other climate wreath in the coarse style are Australia (+28.8 percent), Iceland (+24.2 percent), Liechtenstein (+19 percent) and the USA (+14.4 percent). The latter fall due to the gross of their economy with an increase of 880 million tons of CO2-aquivalent per year especially the weight (CO2-aquivalents speak the climate diplomats and scientists, because all greenhouse gases are converted into CO2 depending on their climate efficiency).

Germany, on the other hand, reduced its emissions from 1990 to 2006 by 18.2 percent, but a significant part of the previously achieved on the deindustrialization of East Germany. The emissions are still a good billion tons of CO2-aquivalent, so about 12 tons per capita and year. For comparison, the long term the emissions must be reduced worldwide to less than two tons per capita and year when the concentration of greenhouse gases should be stabilized in the air.

The UNFCCC numbers can also be found that fuel consumption in international air traffic from 1990 to 2006 increased by 65.9 percent and that of international shipping increased by 18.4 percent. These so-called bunker fuels are not covered by the international tolerated.

The air traffic is twice in addition to the climate because it is not only very energy consuming and thus emission-intensive, but because the water vapor from the exhaust gases often forms fog clouds in the form of condensed strips. These have a very similar effect on the radiant budget of the earth’s surface as the greenhouse gases: they allow the sunlight almost unhindered, but absorb the warm radiation of the surface and the air layers under them.

After the Castor

On Tuesday last week, the Castor achieved special containers with high-radioactive mulling with some delay the intermediate camp in Lower Sachsian Wendland. With up to 16.000 often very young participants were the protests surprisingly rough this year. Even a lot of green prominence looked over, probably also to polish the image a little after the party friends in Hamburg had agreed to a mega coal-fired power plant (see new industrial revolution required) . The nuclear power opponents in the Wendland can be traditionally impressively impressed by such party politics and rather focus on Auberparliastar activities. "Last weekend we showed that the anti-atom movement is back," says Jochen Stay, speaker of the initiative X-thousand times across. "Now we want to take the momentum from Gorleben and continue prere to finally come to a real nuclear phase."

The initiative had organized a non-violent seat blockhead in front of the intermediate warehouse gate, in which information 1.200 people stayed 48 hours before they were sometimes rather randomly and painfully from the police from the path (see recurrence of the anti-atom movement ?To).

Using the new Elan from Gorleben, the campaign became ".broadcast – together against a comeback of atomic energy" brought to life. With it in the election year 2009 prere should be built, so that the energy industry can not prevail with their demand for the extension of the AKW runs. Nesting points of the protests should be the winter meeting of the German Atom Forum in Berlin in early February. "In Berlin, the atomic lobby tries to bring their propaganda from the alleged nuclear power to the public", so stay. "We think we know because we know that it is only about further winnings from ailing reactors to the electricity companies." Planned is an "argumentative surrounding" of the meeting place.

Grune jerk

Something shit in front of your own courage, however, have shown the greats on the weekend on their party congress in Erfurt. The energy policy spokesman for her federal faction Hans-Josef Fell had introduced an application, his party should use for this that from 2030 the electricity in Germany is 100 percent provided by renewable energy carriers. This can, of course, be bad if you agree to the loves coalition peace of the will and there coal-fired power plants.

So the new co-party feet Cem Ozdemir had already been found in advance that that "non-realistic" may be. Grunen had to offer solutions that "also take the economy". But with that he could not convince the delegates at first. This was followed by a heated debate, one of the way the other parties should actually envy the green. Fell had pointed out that in the current development, 30 percent is already possible in 2015.

But the green establishment obviously only too good that this trend towards tremendous resistance. Therefore, justified Jurgen Trittin jumped into the butt to save the government of his party. He suddenly managed to tilt the mood so that a softening of the Fell’s application was adopted.

Economic interest

Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel has once again made himself to the fossophrifist at the end of the last week. Energy-intensive industries of the German industry wants to give them the CO2 certificates in the EU internal emissions trading in the 2013 trading period. Whether you can prevail, is still open and decides on the December meeting of EU Heads of State and Government. From the CDU, the demand is already loudly to postpone the decision to the next half of the year. Then the Czech Republic pending the EU Council Prosident, and its Prasident Vaclav Klaus hold the climate change rather furver for an invention of "okostalinists"

Obviously, it is also very different how the news agency Bloomberg reports. 135 coarse investors, which together control 6.4 trillion US dollars, have jointly required binding CO2 reduction targets. In an explanation set out in the run-up to the UN Climate Conference in the European Polish Poznan in the European Polish Poznan, they involve the greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 percent in industrialized countries by 80 to 95 percent in industrialized countries.

A medium-term goal is also proposed. "This was given to investors gross confidence that states actually set up detailed action programs to achieve the long-term target." The industrialized countries should reduce their emissions by 25 to 40 percent in 1990 to 2020 in 1990.

You can understand that the development countries currently do not want to define themselves binding reduction targets. From the point of view of investors, however, this is especially recommended in case of thresholders. This has been signaled a long-term definition. That in turn it was facilitating investors to plan their investments.

The declaration was developed by the Investor Network on Climate Risk, the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change and their Australian offshoot. To the signers are a number of pension funds as well as some coarse banks such as the British HSBC.

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