China: shrinking population, shrinking city

China: shrinking population, shrinking city

Tianjin. Image: Nangua 1 / CC BY-2.0

Despite the end of the 1-child policy, the birth rate is dramatically breaking in, a third of all the city should already shrink, while urging urban planner

For a long time, it is clear that the Chinese population, for a long time plagued by ubergrobe growth, in unfamiliar demographic faucet. In 2017, the physician Yi Fuxian teaching at the University of Wisconsin Madison had already claimed that the Chinese government is raising the population of up to 100 million too high and China with 1.28 billion people instead of 1.38 only behind India the country the second degree of population is. Yi, who has proven to be a critic’s birth control critic by the 2015-child policy and seems demographically due to the 2015 and decline in nations, there’s skepticalism.

In January, he explained, the Chinese population was lower for the first time in 2018 by 1.27 million people, because more people died as children were born (postponement figures for the first time since the first time of the People’s Republic. Yi has calculated this with a colleague from official data. After numbers of the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), however, the population number was growing until 2020. With then reached 1.44 billion people only the shrinking start – "with unpleasant social and economic consequences".

The Chinese statistics workers still offer a natural population growth of 5.32 per thousand for 2017. According to the United Nations, China continues to be 1.4 billion people (2017) in front of India with 1.34 billion. However, the birth number has fallen at a low of 15.23 million last year. The government had set a birth boom after the end of 1-child policy to slow down the harvesting. But that has not stopped, in some of the city, the birth rate from 2017 to 2018 fell even in double-digit high, even in the country a birth prere was observed by 11 percent. After Zhai Zhenwu, Prasident of the Chinese population association, was a 2018 one "Turning point" With a first negative population growth. He estimates the number of newborns to a little more than 10 million, which of the death trap to 11.6 million. After official numbers, the population started to shrink from 2027.

You have to take the numbers with caution, however, the Chinese government has been panic for years, because so far the economic growth with a growing population, during the low fertilitat rate of 1.6 (Germany: 1.5), increases the sales and the Work-proof population decreases, as long as China did not become an immigration country. The number of people in working age shrinks for several years, in 2018, it should have been 5 million less than in 2017 at 897 million (for the first time the working population shrinks).

China: shrinking population, shrinking city

Image: Bejing City Lab

Shrinking city

The Beijing City Lab collaborated with the Tsinghua Universitat has now submitted a report that warns that China’s population could even shrink dramatically. The Chinese government is still aming that many bads continue to grow, ie urbanization will increase, which enhances a corresponding construction boom. The rapid urbanization in recent decades has led to economic growth and is considered the engine of progress. Almost 59 percent of Chinese live now in the city, it is expected that it continues and 2030 the proportion of city taxation has risen to 70 percent.

But this is a mistake after the lab, many bads have already shrugged, a phanomena that in Germany in the 1990th year with the new phenomenon of "shrinking city" In the east became known. However, the trend, especially in West Germany, has already changed in the larger city in East Germany with the "Renaissance of the city" reversed again. The Lab has tried to determine their development with the comparison of satellite images between 2013 and 2016, derived from the intensity of the lighting of 3300 bads and villards. In 28 percent of the city, the light had become weaker.

It now give 938 shrinking city. Particularly affected are the city, depending on natural resources, like the city of Hegang, coal degradation. The city planner Long Ying, who founded the Lab, criticizes that the city planner responsible for the citys had not noticed the trend and continue to focus on unlimited growing ethnits. They are also under prere on the part of local politicians, further in planning, for example, to increase infrastructure. The urban planning often go from externized economic and population data: "That’s the way if you have lost weight for a decade, but further establishes a nutrition plan, which ames that you put weight", Says Long.

It is difficult to convey the politicians and planners that they no longer have to go out of growth, but by shrinkage (which has been the problem with the shrinking German bads). This simply contradicts the capitalist spirit that can only be maintained by growth, but also the ideology of the Chinese government, which wants to get their power with growth. Long comparison The situation of shrinking city with those in the "Rust Belt" the US, which will be the future of many Chinese city. Shrinking Cities, so warns long, be more difficult to manage as growing, their problems are overnight very different. He refers to the huge buildings in many Chinese citys that are much more expensive than the smaller houses in the "Rust Belt", But probably as the smaller plate buildings in the German East. The Hochhauser could only be inhabited solely, but it could be difficult to determine how many apartments are empty to make a decision to discourage them. Ghost’s Day, which are largely empty, are already some in China

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