Scientifically further underpinned: consequences of climate change are dramatically

Scientifically further underpinned: Consequences of climate change are dramatically

The global climate leads the consequences of man-made educational awareness in his new report more drastic in mind than ever before. Sea size rise, ice melt, more heat waves, wastes and heavy rain can be significantly safe for the latest scientific findings than before. This is apparent from the report on the physical foundations of climate change, which was published on Monday in Geneva.

Much less uncertainties

The facts are alarming: "It is very likely that episodes become more intense and more ingious with starwolds in most regions with a further climate heat", It is called. It is also occupied that the sea level continues to rise and the ice further melts. "Most likely" Homes: with 90 to 100 percent security.

Even if it succeeds to reach up to 2050 climate neutritat, the sea level was allowed to be up to 62 centimeters at the end of the century than 1995-2014. Climate-neutritat is called that only highly so much greenhouse gas is turned out how to absorb lower. "In the Arctic, three-quarters of sea ice volume are already melted in summer", said co-author Dirk Notz from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. "We will probably no longer prevent that the North Public Sea will be largely ice-free until 2050 in summer in summer."

More CO2 in the atmosphere than for 2 million years

The global climate illuminated the physical basics last 2013. Since then, uncertainties had significantly reduced in the climate models. Unlike then, science is now clear: if greenhouse gas emissions are not shut down very quickly, the goal will be to limit the emphasis on two degrees over a pre-industrial level, fail. In addition, more climate change could be reduced directly to the influence of man, said Mitorin Veronika Eyring from the University of Bremen.

"It is undoubtedly that the human influence has heated the atmosphere, the ocean and the land", it is called in the report. "Human influence has heated the climate as it has not occurred for at least 2000 years. (…) 2019 was the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere high than at any other date for at least two million years."

Even worse consequences

The global climate also calls two horror developments that are unlikely, but not to extinguish. On the one hand, this is an increase in the sea level by two meters to the end of the century, depending on how the ice shield of the Antarctic further melts. On the other hand, this is a collapse of the Atlantic Circulation (AMOC), which has already lost ride. She distributes cold and warm water in the Atlantic and influences the most important monsoon in Africa and Asia for billions of people. A collapse of the system, which is also the Gulf Stream, also had an impact on Europe.

The global mid temperature lies after this report for the period 2011 to 2020 just under 1.1 degrees over the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). According to Parisian climate agreements, the states want to hold the worldwarming under two degrees, possibly at 1.5 degrees. "If we do not shut down the emissions quickly enough and reached about 2050-2070 net zero, we will miss both Parisian climate goals", said Mitautor Douglas Marta of the University of Graz.

The world climate now designs five scenarios. Among them are two, where the world reaches about 2050 climate neutritat and then stores more CO2 than exhaust. Only with this could the increase in the mid-this century at the end of this century remain at 1.8 degrees or below. With consistent emissions by 2050, the temperature end of this century was 2.1 to 3.5 degrees over the pre-industrial level. In two other scenarios with at least the doubling of CO2 emissions until the middle of the century, an increase in temperature was possible by up to 5.7 degrees possible.

Reaction of governments difficult to predict

"If you look at what the individual governments have pledged for climate protection, you were most likely to land in the middle scenario", said Notz. "For the future, however, it is still unclear whether the commitments will be adhered to or whether the governments will be strengthened their efforts."

A realistic check: The Energy Agency of the US Government (EIA) has calculated in 2019 that the CO2 outstanded due to the initial industrialization of many countries until 2050 from today in the year around 36 billion tonnes to more than 42 billion tons of tons. China currently produces most greenhouse gas, about a quarter of the total, before the USA with 18 and the EU with 17 percent. The proportion of CO2 emissions received in sinks such as walls or oceans and not remain in the atmosphere is about 44 percent after the report.

The report was written by more than 230 researchers from 66 countries. The collector for political decision-makers was approved unanimously by the 195 IPCC member countries. "So the governments are sitting in the boat, no one can say afterwards: I have nothing to do with it", Jochem said Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.

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