In 2040 the arctic is freezing

New investigations prophesies a highly accelerated ice melt

In the last century, it was still the goal of the shipping nations, the harbor on the Polarmeer, to find an at least in the Arctic summer ice-free passage and freeze it if necessary with ice breaks. In the 21. In the century, this dream was unexpectedly unexpected by all alone.

The ridge of the polar ice in the Arctic in the last five years was stretchy (no end of the melt) and was therefore already examined several times by scientists. The question of how this development continues in the next few years is obvious, the result of corresponding extrapolations in the computer now scare: Within 20 years, the summer ice melt in the Northern Polarmeer was able to speed up a factor of four and cause that in 2040 the Arctic in summer is completely ice-free. This resulted from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and NASA-funded calculations on supercomputers by a scientific team of NCAR, the University of Washington and Canadian McGill University, the Geophysical Research Letters from 12. To be published.

In 2040 the Arctic is freezing

The calculated ice expansion in the Arctic Polarmer in September 2000, comparable to genuine readings

Even if the hitherto observed ice melts were already massive, such a rapid increase had expected nobody, but rather a continuation of the opposite ice loss in the same abrasion. Also taking into account of all the climate models used is the ice, which is 20% by 20% from 1998 to 2003, while in the year 2024 still roughly consistent in order to remove quickly and be completely disappeared in 30 to 50 years of today. The melt is obvious at the moment when the ice ceiling reaches only a certain threshold in winter, which leads to complete melting in summer.

First, the scientists love the observed developments of the polarise since 1870 to today in seven different simulations on the computer and found good practices to the actually measured values. Thus it was amed that the simulations are real estate. At the very beginning, they will love the climate models to continue to expect the future, with a further increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the opposite amed. As a computing result, after phases relative stabilitation, an unexpectedly faster collapse of the polarmeter covered ice, so that in the end result in September of the year 2040, after the Arctic summer, in one of the seven simulations a Dunne Ice Cover just at the north custodians of Gronland and Canada too find. In winter, the strong of the ice ceiling from today four drops on only one meter.

Overall, the succinct collapse of the ice layer in the Polaremeer is found in four of the seven simulations based on different climate models. The reason for the striking "Tilt" of the Polarmeer is that, on the one hand, with the back of the ice, marine transducations relocate and warmly water into the Arctic, on the other hand, that open water absorbs more energy when irradiated by the sun as an ice surface and as a result is stronger. Even in six other climate models, the Polarmereisis disappears at the end of the calculation period.

However, it is not too Spat: If the climate magazine in the atmosphere is increasingly less increasing than today, the collapse of the Polarmeereises is delayed or not taking place, so the researcher Marika Holland from the NCAR: with a slower increase in greenhouse gases as a basis the calculations showed only in three out of 15 simulation runs a sudden ice reduction.

In 2040 the Arctic is freezing

The extrapolated ice expansion in the Arctic Polarmer in September 2040: It’s just little, Dunner’s ice at the custo

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