China: “must” or hype?

The kingdom of the middle shows similar economic mistresses as a few years before the internet

Standed western managers get luminous eyes and an increased saliva flow, if you have the word "China" Also only mentioned. At the latest with the accession of the giant rich to the World Trade Organization WTO, for it, has opened a gigantic sales market, which seems to grow as on drugs. And almost for Lau’s clothes or electronic parts can be made in the welcome "Factory in the world" natural. But the showcatics Shanghai and Hong Kong really are really more than Potemkinsche Dorfer? Maybe the global economy in China may only be based on a bubble that soon as the former Borsenboom of "New Economy"?

Ask for how to arrest at a congress on China and the question mark "new opportunities" When the Wirtschaftswoch had loaded last week to Berlin. Who knows the German business magazine and its editor-in-chief Stefan Baron, was not surprised on the direction of the conference: It’s not really about making an investment in China Madig. Finally, Baron drums, the close personal relationship with the Kingdom of the Middle has been, for years for many Europeans, the most mysterious country in Far East.

"You can do anywhere so cheap in the world and sell it to so many people"

"We soon have to learn all Chinese?", For example, the WiWo asked a year ago with a title on which the name of the magazine praised in Chinese characters. In the run-up to the congress, the sheet had also ied a special ie China, in which the land of the dragon as a global economic power of the motto "Only XXL" is celebrated.

Nevertheless, there was a few critical votes on the event to horen. As a rule, however, they took care of the action that China does not quickly affect the western rules of the globalization, partial markets, such as the lucrative financial services only outlike open, "Intellectual property" not bad and generally still not a legal system frue, the German companies facilitated the enforcement of their local interests.

Thomas Eichelmann, Member of the business execution of Roland Berger in Munchen, targeted the actual problem area, whether China "Must" Or only another hype is. A rather rhetorical question, the consultant ceased doubts about the attractiveness of the site remotely once again. The answer is natural "significantly more on the page of the ‘Must’". China impress with "Constant high growth rates" and is about mobile phones, beer or cars, the production-strongest country on the globe. "You can do anywhere so cheap in the world and sell it to so many people", Eichelmann brought the beating advantages of Asian "Sweatshops" to the point.

That has been pronounced. 400 of the 500 large multi-nationals are already represented in China with their own manufacturing facilities. German companies are also among them. "Germany is China’s larger trading partner in Europe", WEIB XU BINGJIN, PRASIDENT OF THE CHINA EUROPA ASSOCIATION FOR TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION (CEATEC. It makes one third of the whole trade between Europe and the Kingdom of the middle. The former employee of the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing is particularly proud of that his country "Despite the global economic fleaness, a stable failure and fiscal policy" have. China has turned out as a growth engine and highly screwed up bilateral trade in Europe to 33 billion US dollars a year. The youngest increase quotas were 50 percent in the first half of 2003.

The rapid development was allowed to read something different in the eyes of the German employee. "Almost all of the 10 largest German investment projects" are now in China, says Feng Bing, editor-in-chief of the Beijing business newspaper "Economic Daily". In the Jangtse Delta, the boom region around Shanghai, which attracted the large part of Western investors together with the perflow delta in the hinterland Hong Kong and the Tianjin region between Beijing and the Eastern Custo.

The most popular Jangtse delta is no longer just just "a prolonged workbench of corporations", FENES. "More and more research is relocated there." VW alone has already sold 1.9 million cars in China – half of all vehicles used there – and a coarse laboratory built near Shanghai.

Misfortunes adjusted the administration

But there are not the first signs of a superheating of the economic cycle? Feng has dealt with this question, but may well not mind. "There are super offers in some urban real estate and industrial areas", Although he is in. Also, in some places it still come to electricity failure. but "The responsible departments within the Chinese Government currently include this disapproval with the funds of business, law and administration", Sets the media man with the unlabelable certainty and confidence that only with the Chinese living in communism and capitalism can be found.

SARS is about "a test for the Chinese economy", judgment. But the forecasts for the growth of gross national product for the Chinese epidem 2003 have commuted to stately 8.3 percent – a dream rate for countries like Germany, where the government again with the traumatic "Zero growth" to fight. Real obstacles for the Chinese economy, Feng does not look forward to the current century. The shortly held 3. Plenum of the 16. Party congress have the "Market management reforms" further accelerated.

China discovers sustainable development

In addition, the new state and party feet Hu Jintao are also keywords like "Sustainable development" and "environmental Protection" on the agenda of the economy has been lifted. At the same time, at the same time, a system of medical support, which is appropriate to the economic development level, should be established for medical care, for employment agency and social security. By 2020, China’s gross national product would therefore quadruple about 4.3 trillion US dollars. In 2050, 17.2 trillion could be achieved. The per capita income situation then with a population of about 1.5 billion with 10.000 US dollars at the "Lower limit of trains with high per capita income."

But until then it is in "Developing country" China another way. Still give it "enough nut" Investments, Goss Norbert Meyring from the consulting house KPMG in Shanghai then still a little water in the wine. "But the tree in China has not grown in sky." the "Framework conditions" Although the WTO accession had generally improved in western companies, according to the Economic Provision. Nuclear problems are still one "Non-functioning legal problem", in which contract conditions hardly prevail. In addition, the camerie of the "Protection of know-how" still a roulette game equal. "And I’m not just talking about pirated copies and CD piracy", explained Meyring. "Kuhlacke and cars are partially completely rebuilt." Import notifications and corruption have been significantly increased the entrepreneurial risk. "Be Prepared to Walk Away", Gave the KPMG accountant potential investors on their way to the Far East.

Recognizable evidence of threatening overproduction capacities in the thoroughly shimmering Far East paradise and the plan of the Chinese government, even to pay multi-nationals and to send them to all the world, also throw the introduced globalization rules over the pile. Handy territory as the "Feware"-Producer Haier or TCL, which builds up in Europe, buyer companies and brandenhulls as those of Schneider electronics and ground factories in the US, are certainly only the beginning. Strictly adapted to the cultural conditions on-site, the often not very easy to internal motto for Western companies in the Middle Middle Mountain is called: "98 percent of the products we sell in China are also made there", Says Metro Chef Hans-Joachim Korber. And have traditionally the "Fresh market" Operation, the self-resistant also selling crot, fros and snakes alive. As food.

Telepolis author Stefan Krempl regularly gives a pointed news view of the economic, political and cultural changes in the Middle Kingdom in his weblog China in The News. ()

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